Chips, ships and oil: What's shaping the global macroeconomic outlook in 2026

Chips: A transformation measured in decades, not quarters

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the defining investment theme of this era and history suggests these kinds of technological shifts play out over a very long horizon. Like the internet or the electrification before it, AI's full economic benefits are likely to unfold gradually, well beyond the current burst of enthusiasm.

We're already seeing early signs of an AI supercycle: adoption is accelerating, productivity gains may be beginning to materialise in some sectors.

What this means in practice is complex. At the market level, multi-year build-out of physical infrastructure - data centres, power, cooling and the semiconductors are key drivers to this cycle. The investment pipeline is substantial and still growing.

But building this future collides with real-world limits: power, water, land and skilled labour are finite, and the pace of the boom will ultimately be shaped by how quickly that capacity can be delivered as well as by how meaningful the technology is.

For long-term investors like AustralianSuper, the opportunity isn't in trying to time the market. It's in recognising that this transformation has further to run, that the benefits will likely broaden across more industries and regions over time, and managing exposure with discipline matters more than calling any single moment.

Ships: A structurally less certain world for trade

For much of the past few decades, global trade grew on an assumption of open, predictable trade. That assumption is no longer a given. Shipping lanes, energy corridors and technology supply chains are increasingly exposed to geopolitical tension across key parts of the world.

This is a structural shift, not a passing headline. A world where the movement of goods and energy can be disrupted by events beyond financial markets is one where resilience, diversification and careful scenario planning become more valuable over time. Our approach is to track the ways in which these forces interact, maintain the right balance of adaptability and discipline, and to build portfolios designed to deliver for members in a range of outcomes, rather than betting on a single view of how the world unfolds.

Oil: Why energy remains a long-run swing factor

Energy sits where global events meet everyday life. When supply is disrupted, prices can rise sharply, and those costs aren’t confined to the energy sector. They flow into transport, manufacturing and the price of everyday goods, which in turn shapes inflation and the decisions central banks make.

The specific flashpoints will come and go. But our view is that the world's energy system is in the middle of a long transition and remains vulnerable to shocks along the way. This is likely to be a feature of the investment landscape for years to come. That's why we treat energy not as a short-term trade, but as a structural factor woven through inflation, interest rates and company earnings.

What it means for members

For members, the natural question is what all this means for retirement savings. Our approach is built precisely for a new world of unpredictability. Our job is to look through short-term volatility, test the portfolio against a wide range of scenarios, and stay focused on the long term. We ask ourselves how these enduring themes could shape inflation, interest rates, currencies and company earnings over years, not weeks.

The bigger picture is one of a global economy that's still growing, but along an uneven path. Technology is reshaping industries, geopolitics is redrawing the map of global trade, and energy remains a powerful swing factor. Through all of it, our discipline doesn't change: deep research, global expertise and a long-term focus that works to grow and protect your retirement savings.