Market cycles and super - it’s all about the long term

19 May 2026

Investing successfully for retirement relies on a steady focus and not being distracted by the twists and turns inevitable on any long journey.

For AustralianSuper’s Senior Director of Macro Research, Felicity Emmett, the key to success is to remain focused on your retirement goals. For most members with long-term investment horizons that can often mean staying the course when markets fluctuate.

As Felicity explains: ‘We understand it can be stressful to see your super balance fall, especially if you’re in retirement and funding your living costs from your super savings. As an active investor, we review and adjust the portfolio in response to the changing economic and market outlook and seek out opportunities to deliver value for members. Although market downturns can create stress, they can also lead to the mispricing of assets and buying opportunities for investors like us, which can help deliver strong long-term performance.’

Markets move in complex cycles and can be challenging to predict, especially if you’re not an investment expert. AustralianSuper’s deep team of experts rely on decades of experience and extensive research to help add value over the long-term.

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Changing markets can cause unease

When markets fall, it’s natural to feel uneasy. Many people feel the pain of an investment loss more than they enjoy the success of a gain. It can be hard to see at the time, but when markets fall it’s often a time of opportunity.

As well-known investor Warren Buffett says, ‘Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.’

AustralianSuper navigates market cycles for members

The chart below shows that over a period of 20 years, despite ups and downs in the market, members’ super invested in the Balanced option has grown. It can be tempting to sell out of the market and wait on the sidelines until it seems safe to dive back in, but many studies show that this strategy can deliver lower returns over the long run.

Growth of $100,000 from March 2006 to March 2026 in the Balanced option – super
Long term performance of the Balanced option.

 

AustralianSuper investment returns are based on crediting rates, which are returns less investment fees and costs, transaction costs, the percentage-based administration fee deducted from returns from 1 April 2020 to 2 September 2022 and taxes. The analysis is net of administration fees with ending balance results rounded to the nearest $1,000. Returns don’t include insurance and other fees and costs that are deducted from account balances. Investment returns aren’t guaranteed. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future returns. Returns from equivalent options of the ARF and STA super funds are used in calculating return for periods that begin before 1 July 2006.

 

The benefits of patience in times of uncertainty

History shows that the markets increase in value over the long term. By staying invested in a diversified portfolio your super has more opportunity to benefit from a future upturn when markets rebound. This means members who stay invested in a diversified portfolio often end up in a better position than those who keep changing investment options.

It’s important to consider your risk tolerance and your risk capacity. Risk tolerance is about how much you are comfortable losing over the short term. Risk capacity is how much risk and return you need over the long term to achieve your retirement goals.

 

Seeking financial advice 

Balancing your risk appetite and personal financial goals is something which may change over the course of your working life and retirement. Consider speaking to a financial adviser to help you work through any questions and goals. An accredited financial adviser can help guide you when investment markets are bumpy so you can stay calm, focus on your retirement goals and make the right investment choices for you.


Investment returns are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

 


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